The 2024-25 UEFA Champions League has delivered drama and surprises in equal measure, with the competition’s revamped format producing a series of stunning upsets. The Champions League odds have not been this open in years, and as we approach the semi-finals, it will be interesting to see who will keep their nerve on the road to Munich.
UEFA’s controversial shift to the Swiss model league phase followed by knockout rounds has created fresh tactical challenges for Europe’s elite.
The expanded format forced teams to navigate eight league matches against a wider range of opposition, testing squad depth and adaptability in ways the traditional group stage never did. What’s emerged is perhaps the most unpredictable Champions League in recent memory.
As we approach the business end of the tournament, the established order has been dramatically disrupted, with recent winners Liverpool, Bayern Munich, Manchester City and Real Madrid all eliminated earlier than expected.
But who will get over the line? Inter take on Barcelona while Paris Saint Germain face Arsenal, the last remaining Premier League side in the competition. In this article, we take a look at each side’s chances of lifting the big-eared trophy come May.
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Arsenal
Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal have finally translated domestic consistency – albeit lacking trophies — into European excellence.
Their 5-1 aggregate demolition of Real Madrid in the quarter-finals announced them as genuine contenders, combining defensive solidity with devastating counter-attacks.
Bukayo Saka has been their talismanic figure now that he is back from injury, while William Saliba’s commanding defensive performances have provided the platform for their success.
Having waited almost two decades for another Champions League final appearance, Arsenal carry momentum that has seen them improve from last year’s exit to a more experienced Bayern Munich.
Their semi-final against PSG represents a fascinating tactical battle between Arteta’s fluid system and Luis Enrique’s approach.
Paris Saint-Germain
In their first post-Kylian Mbappé Champions League campaign, PSG have defied expectations by reaching the semi-finals through collective strength rather than individual brilliance.
Enrique has instilled a tactical discipline previously lacking, evidenced by their impressive eliminations of Liverpool and Aston Villa .
The Parisian tour of England continues with semi-final against Arsenal, pitting the Ligue 1 champions and Enrique a tactical chess match against Arteta, as both coaches favour possession-based systems with high pressing, setting up what could be the most technically sophisticated tie of the round.
At the Emirates, PSG were beaten in the group stage last time out, but they have become the most inform side in the world since then, and the form of the attackers, particularly Ousmane Dembele, makes them dangerous.
Barcelona
La Liga favourites and Catalan giants Barcelona have been transformed under Hansi Flick, with their blend of La Masia graduates and experienced campaigners recalling the club’s golden era.
Lamine Yamal has emerged as the tournament’s breakout star, while Raphinha’s goal contributions have been crucial to their progress.
With 9/4 odds to win the competition for the first time since 2015, Barca appear to have rediscovered their European identity after years of underachievement.
Their semi-final against Inter Milan will all be about breaking the Italians down, and given their attacking talent it will be a really exciting encounter – redolent of the 2010 semis where both sides met on the road to the Santiago Bernabeu.
Inter Milan
The competition’s outsiders, Inter, have built their campaign on remarkable defensive resilience and clinical counter-attacking.
Simone Inzaghi’s side have conceded the fewest goals in the competition, with their back three led by Alessandro Bastoni proving nearly impenetrable.
In attack, Lautaro Martínez has been lethal, while Hakan Çalhanoğlu’s midfield control has allowed them to dictate tempo against supposedly superior opposition.
Their quarter-final victory over Bayern Munich demonstrated their tactical flexibility and big-game personality, though an interesting story developing is that their domestic campaign could go down to a playoff with Napoli, should both teams finish the Serie A campaign on the same points.
This could take some attention away from Inter’s semi-final against Barcelona, which as mentioned presents a classic stylistic contrast – Italian pragmatism against Spanish artistry – as Inzaghi’s defensive masterplan faces its greatest test against Flick’s free-flowing Catalans.
Should Inter make the final, as well as win the Copa Italia, the treble is on but the side will be stretched thin and be running on pure momentum in these final weeks.
